Дженоа vs Удинезе Prediction Adam Pro Tipster

The Italian Serie A competition continues with an important clash as Genoa hosts Udinese at the Luigi Ferraris Stadium. This match takes place on April 4, 2025, with kickoff scheduled for 18:45 UTC. Both teams enter this fixture with differing objectives for the current season - Genoa fighting to avoid relegation while Udinese aims to strengthen their mid-table position. Let's take a closer look at both teams and provide a comprehensive analysis to help form our prediction.

Current form

Genoa's recent form has been inconsistent, with the team securing only one win in their last five matches. Their performance statistics reveal a team that often dominates possession but struggles to convert chances into goals.

• Genoa 1-1 Lecce (Home) - Struggled to break down Lecce's defense; possession: 58%, xG: 1.2
• Empoli 0-2 Genoa (Away) - Dominant performance; possession: 54%, xG: 2.1
• Genoa 0-3 Napoli (Home) - Outclassed by Napoli; possession: 45%, xG: 0.8
• Cagliari 1-1 Genoa (Away) - Missed opportunities; possession: 53%, xG: 1.3
• Genoa 2-0 Venezia (Home) - Controlled victory; possession: 60%, xG: 2.5

The statistics show that Genoa has managed to score in three of their last five games while keeping two clean sheets. Their xG statistics suggest they create decent chances but may lack efficiency in front of goal, particularly evident in their draw against Lecce where they created chances worth 1.2 xG but only scored once.

Key players and injuries

Genoa's attacking threat primarily comes from their forward duo of Gudmundsson and Retegui, who have been identified as potential game-changers. However, the team is facing significant injury concerns that could impact their performance in this match:

• Mario Balotelli (Broken Hand) – Out until early April
• Maxwel Cornet, Caleb Ekuban, Junior Messias – Doubtful with muscle injuries
• Vitinha – Questionable fitness status

These injuries notably weaken Genoa's bench strength and limit their tactical options, particularly in the attacking third where fresh legs might be needed in the second half.

Position in the standings

Genoa currently sits in a precarious 17th position in the Serie A table, placing them dangerously close to the relegation zone. This makes the fixture against Udinese a critical match in their fight for survival in Italy's top league.

Strengths and weaknesses

Genoa's strengths include their ability to control possession, as demonstrated by consistently high possession statistics (ranging from 53-60% in four of their last five matches). They also perform well at home, where they've lost only once in their last three matches at the Luigi Ferraris Stadium.

However, their weaknesses are evident in their defensive vulnerabilities, particularly against stronger opposition as shown in their 0-3 defeat to Napoli. They also struggle to convert possession into clear-cut chances and goals, with multiple matches showing missed opportunities despite favorable xG numbers.

Current form

Udinese enters this fixture with slightly better recent form than their opponents, having lost only once in their last five matches. Their results show a team that can be clinical in attack while maintaining a solid defensive structure.

• Udinese 0-0 Torino (Home) - Defensive stalemate; possession: 49%, xG: 0.9
• Monza 1-3 Udinese (Away) - Clinical attacking display; possession: 48%, xG: 2.8
• Udinese 0-2 Fiorentina (Home) - Struggled against Fiorentina's pressing; possession: 46%, xG: 0.7
• Sassuolo 1-1 Udinese (Away) - Balanced game; possession: 50%, xG: 1.4
• Udinese 2-1 Hellas Verona (Home) - Hard-fought win; possession: 52%, xG: 1.9

The statistics reveal that Udinese has scored in three of their last five matches, demonstrating particularly impressive clinical finishing in their 3-1 away win against Monza where their xG of 2.8 resulted in three goals.

Key players and injuries

Udinese's attack is led by the physical presence of Beto, who will be involved in a key battle against Genoa's Dragusin. The team's tactical setup relies on wingbacks Udogie and Pereyra to provide width and create chances. The midfield partnership of Samardzic, Walace, and Lovric offers both defensive stability and creative options.

Importantly, Udinese reports no major injuries heading into this match, giving them a significant advantage over their opponents in terms of squad availability and tactical flexibility.

Position in the standings

Udinese occupies a mid-table position and is looking to consolidate their standing while potentially pushing for European qualification spots. This provides them with clear motivation but perhaps less pressure than their relegation-threatened opponents.

Strengths and weaknesses

Udinese's primary strength appears to be their clinical attacking ability, particularly evident in their away performance against Monza. They also demonstrate defensive solidity, having kept two clean sheets in their last five matches.

Their physicality, particularly through Beto up front, gives them an aerial threat that could prove decisive in what's expected to be a tight contest. The team's ability to perform well away from home (four points from their last two away fixtures) is another positive factor heading into this match.

Their main weakness appears to be inconsistency in home performances, where they've failed to score in two of their last three home games. They also sometimes struggle against teams that apply high pressing, as demonstrated in their 0-2 defeat to Fiorentina.

Head-to-head statistics (Recent Meetings)

While specific recent results between these two teams weren't provided in detail, the data indicates that Genoa and Udinese have historically engaged in tight contests, with most matches ending in draws or narrow victories for either side. This historical pattern suggests we might expect another closely fought encounter.

The key battle that could define this match is Dragusin vs Beto in aerial duels, with Genoa's defender's aerial ability potentially being a crucial countermeasure to Udinese's physical forward. Another important match-up will be on the flank between Pereyra and Criscito.

Betting Odds & Coefficients

Based on the provided data, the betting markets view this as a closely contested match with slight preference toward a low-scoring game:

• Genoa Win (1-0) – Probability of ~12%
• Draw (1-1) – Probability of ~13%
• Udinese Win (0-1) – Probability of ~10%
• Over/Under Goals Prediction – Under 2.5 goals favored (~60%)
• Both Teams to Score – Likelihood ~46%

These odds reflect the defensive tendencies of both teams and their limited offensive firepower. The highest probability outcome according to these odds is a 1-1 draw, followed closely by a 1-0 home win for Genoa.